More solar capacity coming!
14.11.25
If you’ve been following the FSLR/NXT posts - this should be a quick and helpful read to see where things are in the utility-solar space.
According to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) new update, it looks like solar projects are moving faster than they were a year ago. Only about 20% of planned solar capacity reported delays in the third quarter of 2025. That’s down from 25% a year earlier!
I suspect there are a few things that are happening this year to support the faster movement and why the thesis for FSLR & NXT is still relevant today, which is:
1) with the new administration - good or bad, there is now clearity in the one big beautiful bill, such that despite the eventual phase out of EV credits, solar on the other hand has been kept in place. Hence, as a contractor you have better visibility this year moving forward with your plans.
2) the demand for energy (regardless of source) is a must have this year, as the demand for a.i continues to ramp. As I write this note, Meta confirms $600B capex to build AI infrastructure in US through to 2028. There is nothing faster out there from a speed to delievery of energy than solar - you can get a utility solar farm up and running (especially in large space areas like that of the desert, where most data centers are headquarter) in 6-12 months, vs something like Nuclear which at the very minimum 5 years, and even that there needs to be zero hiccups.
When you kind of put these pieces together, there is a genuine sign of progess being made here - which should play well for both these stocks, given the unique space they are in.
Even though many of these projects faced delays in 2024, it was still a record-breaking year for U.S. solar. Developers added 31 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale capacity, expanding total national solar capacity by 34% in a single year. That’s equivalent to roughly 10 million average U.S. homes’ worth of electricity! Although for reference - China adds roughly the same amount in one month.
2026 Pipeline?
The EIA tracks all of this through its Annual Electric Generator Report (EIA-860) and its monthly updates, the Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. Developers initially report their project timelines a year or more in advance. Then, as the planned operational date approaches, they file monthly updates.
For 2024, developers said they expected to bring more than 36 GW of solar capacity online that year. The final number — 31 GW installed — shows a gap of 5 GW, or about 14%. Between October 2025 and September 2026, the projected capacity is at 33GW.
If these numbers hold, the U.S. will easily surpass 200 GW of cumulative utility-scale solar capacity by the end of 2026, putting it well on track to meet medium-term decarbonization goals set by states and utilities.
So what?
As we speak, there has been a ~5% drawdown across the solar stocks. Despite this, I believe for the businesses we are interested it in $FSLR & $NXT, the trend toward fewer delays is a good signal of how operations are coming along. As well has just confirming/verifying what management has stated in their recent presentations.